Wait a minute... until the inexplicably popular Come From Away opened, I think many thought Great Comet had a chance to beat DEH. The two are very very different musicals and Great Comet is a very very well reviewed show that has built momentum for years, has a magnificent Broadway transfer and a big star bringing new attention to it.
Stupid as I may have been, I still thought there was a *chance* at an upset even after Come From Away opened.
I do remember distinctly that no one thought Passing Strange, a tiny show that is brilliant but almost a one-man show with a few characters played by other people, had a chance in hell of taking Best Musical. Best score perhaps, best book maybe, but not Best Musical. I really don't think it was more likely that PS could win its year than GC could win this year.